Special Election Bad News for Dems

FaulconerIn San Diego, Republican Kevin Faulconer trounced his Democrat competition in the special election to replace the corrupt, sex-crazed Democrat former mayor. He’s more than 20 points ahead of his nearest Dem competitor, with ballots left to count. But thus far, he’s secured the vote of just 43.58% of the electorate, so in the runoff, if all the Dems un-splinter themselves from this election’s back-stabbing and show up in equal numbers, they could knock  him off.

That’s some big if’s, so I think  Faulconer will survive to become San Diego’s new mayor. And it’s just great to see Nathan Fletcher, who switched from GOP to Independent to Democrat, apparently coming in third and out of the runoff. If David Alvarez holds on to second, the election will pivot on the state’s tipping point: public employee union power and privilege (Alvarez) vs. conservative efforts to save the state from fiscal ruin (Faulconer).

Susan ShelleyReceiving much less coverage than the San Diego race was a special election in Assembly District 45 – the Democrat-controlled western San Fernando Valley. For this, I’ll turn to a Democrat commentator, Scott Lay, who compiles the daily Nooner summary of State political news:

AD45 (W. San Fernando Valley): Matt Dababneh (D) is holding on to a precarious lead over Susan Shelley (R) in the west San Fernando Assembly seat vacated by now-LA councilmember Bob Blumenfield. Several political observers are spitting out their coffee this morning as they wake up to these results:

MATT DABABNEH (D)

13,258

50.42

SUSAN SHELLEY (R)

13,038

49.58

Democrats have a near 2-to-1 margin in this district, and even if every independent voter joined the Republican party, they still would fall short of Democratic registration. Dababneh had far more resources and virtually all the endorsements. Shelley’s entire campaign down the stretch was about “protecting Prop. 13,” arguing that if Dababneh went to Sacramento he would be part of a two-thirds Democratic majority that might ask the voters to consider changes to the voter threshhold for special taxes or to create a split roll for corporations. …

Nobody knows what is going to happen in AD45. Our standard forecasting would project that late absentees and provisionals reflect election day, although that formula has always given the edge to the more liberal candidate. If we use that formula and ignore that recent tradition, Shelley wins. But, honestly, nobody knows at this point.

Well, I know something: This ain’t the same California it was a few months ago!

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